Here's proof: Bedding heading for boffo growth
By David Perry, Executive editor -- Furniture Today, January 6, 2002
So I take a few years off from the bedding beat and look what happens: The industry has its worst year in more than two decades.
Well, I'm here to deliver a simple message: It stops here and now. Next year we are going to get back on the growth track. I've got some interesting evidence that this will happen.
I've discovered a compelling correlation between changes in the bedding beat at Furniture/Today and the industry's overall performance. Since the early 1980s, every time a new writer has taken over the bedding beat, that writer has presided over a period of growth, and each time at a steadily increasing rate.
Skeptical?
We start with Lester Craft Jr., who covered bedding in 1983 and 1984. In that period, the wholesale dollar value of adult mattresses and shipments increased by 6.7%, according to figures from the International Sleep Products Assn. That's a nice increase, I think you'll agree. But it was just the beginning of the good times that would roll for many years to come.
Late in 1984, a new bedding writer emerged. This writer, who went on to a stellar career at Furniture/ Today, is my personal favorite, mostly because I'm referring to myself. (OK, forget the part about the stellar career. At least I'm still here.)
During my tenure on the bedding beat from 1985 to 1989, the industry grew 28.53%. That's an average of 7.13% per year. You'll note that's a slightly higher growth rate than the industry achieved under Lester's tutelage.
In 1989, I stepped aside from bedding and Larry Thomas made his debut. From 1990 to 2000, with Larry at the helm, the industry grew 98.5%. That's an average of 9.85% per year. You'll note again that's a higher growth rate than the industry achieved under my tutelage. (In the spirit of holiday charity, l'm giving Larry a pass on 2001.)
The trend here cannot be denied. Every new bedding writer has led the industry to new growth levels. Thus, yours truly will be looking to produce average annual growth of 10%. Or maybe even more. Revise your forecasts for 2002 accordingly.
Of course, we Furniture/Today bedding writers cannot take all the credit for those escalating growth rates. You producers, retailers and suppliers, who together do such an outstanding job of marketing, must get some credit too.
To be serious for a moment, you industry folks must get ALL the credit for bedding's amazing growth streak. You've given observers like Lester, me and Larry a great ride for a long time. Now, if you can somehow find a way to produce 10% annual growth rates for at least a year or two, you will make me look like a real genius.
I promise to give you full credit in a future column.
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