Those weekend crowds didn't look like a recession
By Jeff Linville, Staff Writer -- Furniture Today, December 2, 2001
It's official. After nearly a year and a half of reduced furniture sales, we can finally use the word "recession."
On Nov. 26, four days after the national day of giving thanks, a bunch of bean counters declared the United States has been in a recession since March. The National Bureau of Economic Research's "business-cycle dating committee" announced that this is the first one in a decade, coming after the longest economic expansion on record.
The middle and late 1990s were a prosperous time for many businesses, including manufacturers and retailers in the furniture industry. Then, in late summer 2000, things began to change. Vendors at the Tupelo market said sales were down from the year's first market in February, but they weren't too concerned as the previous market did quite well for them. Some predicted that sales would be slow for the rest of that year, then pick up in the first part of this year.
After pointing out the obvious, the NBER didn't offer any insight into the future — no predictions for retail sales in the coming months, no long-range forecasts.
If it had any impact at all, the announcement might push Congress to work on ways to boost the economy. President Bush called on the Senate and House to complete work on a stimulus package by Christmas.
After the NBER report, the president said, "I am obviously aware that our economy is slow. And we will do everything we can to enhance recovery."
The Conference Board, a New York-based private business research group, said its index of consumer confidence fell to 82.2 in November, compared with 85.3 in October. I have no idea what those numbers mean, but it doesn't sound good.
On the bright side, a day after the recession became official, investment house Merrill Lynch predicted the recession would end by March, due to a combination of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, tax cuts and government spending.
That prediction is optimistic, according to James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist at investment firm Wells Capital Management.
"The real issue isn't when the recession ends," Paulsen said. "It's when do you get back to a sustainable growth rate of 3% to 4%." He's guessing it will take well into 2003 before that happens.
OK, so I'm no economist. I haven't even had a college math class in nine years. But I know what I see.
The economy might be slow right now, but I sure couldn't tell it over the Thanksgiving weekend. Everywhere I went, I saw packed stores and busy Christmas shoppers. The Wal-Mart near my house had so many cars in the parking lot it reminded me of attending basketball games at the Charlotte Coliseum.
OK, so one weekend does not a recovery make. But it is encouraging.
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