Exec's crystal balls pretty good on 2001 forecasts
By David Perry, Executive editor -- Furniture Today, December 16, 2001
By now we all know that 2001 has been the worst year for the bedding industry in two decades. The latest forecast from the International Sleep Products Assn. says the wholesale dollar value of adult mattresses and foundations will be down 5.5% in 2001, with units showing a decline of 7%.
But did we see it coming?
A look back at our Bedding Outlook for 2001 is instructive. That report, published in our Dec. 4, 2000 issue, presents the fearless forecasts and inside insights of more than a dozen leading bedding producers.
I had thought, when I pulled that issue out of the Furniture/Today archives, that I might find a big gap between forecasts and reality. I thought I might find most producers saying that 2001 would be the best year ever. Hope, after all, springs eternal in the heart of many a mattress man (and woman).
Well, here and there I did see a bedding executive predicting that 2001 would be a growth year. But mostly what I saw was a lot of concern about 2001. In fact, I was impressed with how well our leading producers were able to identify the storm clouds on the horizon.
Here are some examples (remember, the executives made these comments in late November 2000):
Sealy Chairman Ron Jones: "Things softened a bit after Labor Day … and that could continue until the financial markets settle down and energy prices stabilize."
Serta President Ed Lilly: "We think business is going to be very tough next year. If you are going to grow your business, you have to gain market share at someone else's expense."
Spring Air President Jim Nation: "Retail business is softening, and it's not just furniture retailing. I think it will continue to be soft next year."
Englander President Roger Jasperson: "I have to believe that business isn't going to be as brisk as it has been."
Chittenden & Eastman Chairman Don Robb: "I think it's going to be a difficult year."
The executives were analyzing a marketplace in which business was slowing, there was growing concern about the stock market and the economy, and we still didn't know who our next president would be. Given that mix of negatives and unknowns, they were wary about 2001. And rightly so, we now know from the wonderful vantage point of hindsight.
There was one thing that happened this year that no one could have foreseen: the tragedy of Sept. 11. It pushed the home furnishings industry's recovery sometime well into 2002, many analysts say.
That day has affected the way all of us look at the future. Now executives temper their predictions about business with a caveat: This assumes nothing terrible happens.
That's a sad part of the legacy of Sept. 11. We are less certain about what the future may hold. Still, bedding has a solid history as a stellar performer on retail floors. We will, beyond any doubt, have a good year in 2002. That's my prediction.
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