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ISPA forecasts solid gains in 2004, 2005

By David Perry -- Furniture Today, April 18, 2004

ALEXANDRIA, Va. — In its latest forecast for the bedding industry, the International Sleep Products Assn. sees a strong performance for the industry this year, followed by another solid growth year in 2005.

ISPA's latest forecast, issued earlier this year, calls for a 5.6% jump in the dollar value of bedding shipments in 2004, with units expected to grow by 3%.

The numbers reflect improving optimism about business prospects this year.

Looking at 2005, the ISPA forecast sees a 4.4% gain in the dollar value of bedding shipments, with a 2% unit gain.

ISPA has been publishing economic forecasts for the bedding industry since the mid-1980s. It uses an econometric model combined with insights from a panel of bedding veterans.

The forecasts are a tool for bedding producers to use in forecasting business trends.

The latest forecast sees 2004 as being a strong year for the industry, in some ways even stronger than 2003. The dollar growth should be about the same, according to the forecast, while the unit growth will be more robust.

The latest figures on 2003 show that dollars posted a 5.8% gain, with units up 1.8%. That was a surprisingly strong showing for an industry that endured a roller coaster year.

"It appears the bedding industry experienced a strong recovery during the second half of 2003, overcoming a weak business climate that existed at the beginning of the year," ISPA said in its latest forecast.

If the ISPA forecast is on target, the industry is in the midst of what will be a sustained period of growth, a welcome development from the tough years of 2001 and 2002.

Both dollars and units were in negative territory in 2001, with units barely moving up into positive territory in 2002.

Unit growth of 3% in 2004 and 2% in 2005 would be a solid achievement for a mature industry like bedding.

Dollar gains are again expected to outpace unit growth in the next two years, as producers continue to drive up average unit selling prices with aggressive marketing and product development programs.

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