All is uncomfortably quiet on Canadian front
By Michael Knell, Canadian correspondent -- Furniture Today, March 28, 2004
My crystal ball doesn't seem to be working very well these days.
People from all over Canada and from every part of the industry are always asking me about what's going on out there and what the rest of the year looks like for the Canadian furniture industry.
From where I sit, the picture is still murky.
But everyone I've spoken to in the past few weeks has noted how quiet things have been since the Toronto market in January. While there aren't any numbers to prove or disprove this general uneasiness, it's very real.
It's as though we're all waiting for the other shoe to drop. For example, both manufacturers and retailers are worried about the current antidumping brouhaha in the United States. Frankly, if duties are imposed on Chinese wood bedroom imports, Canadian producers aren't expecting to see an immediate uptick in their order.
Many retailers are worried about deflation. When a Canadian consumer can walk into one of the big-box mass merchandisers and buy a leather match reclining chair for C$99, the rush to the bottom is on.
So, while Canadian producers are trying to build better goods while driving costs out of the process to remain competitive, retailers are trying to source product that consumers will buy at a margin that's big enough to keep themselves in business. Complicating this picture are world events, which are beyond anyone's control.
For example, will terrorism, and the war against it, spread? And Martha Stewart is only one of many corporate executives to appear before the bar of justice. Meanwhile, governments in this country are promising to cut taxes while increasing spending on the things Canadians care most about — health care and education, for the most part.
All the while the politicians are acknowledging, at least in part, that the economy is not going to grow enough to generate sufficient revenues to cover the governments' spending hikes and tax cuts.
Why should consumers be expected to make rational decisions — about their investments, about their purchases, about their family's future — in this environment?
It makes our jobs tougher, especially since we know that most furniture purchases can be easily postponed.
But if you think about it, doesn't it also make our jobs more fun, more satisfying? To do well in this environment must be the sweetest accomplishment.
My crystal ball is still murky. I don't know what the second half will bring. But I know we're going to get up every morning, go to work and give it our best shot. So, when you take a few minutes to have a well-earned cup of coffee, give me a call and tell me how things are going.
Maybe the picture will get brighter.
Opinion columns are available online at www.furnituretoday.com.
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