Share this on

South, West driving growth

By Kay Anderson -- Furniture Today, December 26, 2004

Population growth and shifts in age and ethnicity point to a 22% increase in sales over the five-year period from 2004 to 2009, according to statisticians at New York-based Easy Analytic Software Inc. (EASI).

EASI's estimates for furniture and bedding sales in each metropolitan area (the company makes estimates for geographic areas as small as census block groups and tracts) start with product segment estimates developed by Furniture/Today market research, which are coupled with data from EASI's own extensive database of demographic and sales information. Projections for future sales in a geographic area are derived using sophisticated statistical modeling that accounts for expected changes in population levels, age, ethnicity and household growth, among other factors. Changes in economic conditions are not part of the equations.

The greater New York metropolitan area remains the biggest market for furniture and bedding sales — an estimated $4.9 billion in 2004. With more than 1.5 times the sales of its closest rival, Los Angeles, New York's No. 1 spot is secure for some time to come. But the most rapid growth in sales is coming in other parts of the country.

In 2004, the Northeast accounted for 20% of furniture and bedding sales. By 2009, that share of sales is expected to drop a percentage point, with a lot of the sales, like the population, moving South. Already holding 35% of sales, in five years the South will kick it up a notch, to 36%.

Of the five cities expected to have the fastest sales growth between 2004 and 2009, three are in the South and two are in the West. Between them, there's an expected 47% increase in furniture and bedding sales.

The growth pattern holds for the 364 cities (of a total of 934) that are expected to grow their furniture and bedding sales faster than the national average. Of these 364 cities, 162 are in the South and 107 are in the West. Only 22 are in the Northeast and 73 in the Midwest.

The fast-growing cities in the West and South are the fastest of the fast as well. The 162 Southern cities expected to grow furniture and bedding sales faster than the national average will have a 27% aggregate sales growth according to EASI's projections, increasing their share of the nation's furniture and bedding sales from 22% to 23%. In the West, the 107 cities growing sales faster than the national average will up their share of total furniture and bedding sales from 13% to 14%, increasing furniture and bedding sales by 28%.

Not surprisingly, four-fifths of the cities that are expected to grow their sales faster than the national average currently have less than $100 million in furniture and bedding sales. But EASI's projections indicate there is still more room for increased sales in larger metros in the West and especially the South. There are 66 metro areas with 2004 furniture and bedding sales of $100 million or more that are expected to grow their sales faster than the national average. Of these, only three are in the northeast (Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, N.Y., Reading, Pa., and Trenton-Ewing, N.J.); seven are in the Midwest, 23 are in the West and 33 are in the South.

Fourteen more metros will exceed $100-million in furniture and bedding sales by 2009. Swelling the ranks of these big-bucks metros are Ann Arbor, Mich., and Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.-Mo., in the Midwest and Salinas, Calif., Anchorage, Alaska, and Salem, Ore., in the West.

The greatest number of additions to the $100-million club will be in the South, three each in Florida and North Carolina, two in Alabama and one in Texas:

• Huntsville, Ala.

• Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, Fla.

• Montgomery, Ala.

• Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, N.C.

• Tallahassee, Fla.

• Naples-Marco Island, Fla.

• Wilmington, N.C.

• Fayetteville, N.C.

• Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, Texas

Billion-dollar markets

All five of the billion-dollar markets in the South are expected to exceed the national average in sales growth for furniture and bedding. In the other regions, the billion-dollar markets will lag behind the national average, according to EASI forecasts.

Currently, 12 metro areas top the billion dollar mark: three in the Northeast (New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J., Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.—Md. and Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, Mass. —N.H,); two in the Midwest (Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill.-Ind.-Wis., Detroit-Warren-Livonia, Mich.); two in the West (Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif.; San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, Calif.); and five in the South (Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.V., Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, Fla., Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, Texas and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga.).

By 2009, EASI forecasts four more markets will join the ranks of those with furniture and bedding sales exceeding $1 billion: Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz., Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash. and Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif., in the West and Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis., in the Midwest.

Proof that the housing market affects furniture sales is found in the cities projected to have the greatest increases in furniture sales. A high proportion of the housing stock in each of the four regional growth leaders was built since 1998, 38% in Huntsville, Texas, 29% in Canon City Colo., 23% in Lewisburg. Pa., and 17% in Sault Ste. Marie, Mich.

All four are college towns. Hunts-ville, located about 70 miles north of Houston, is home to Sam Houston State University. Bucknell University is in Lewisburg, in Central Pennsylvania on the Susquehanna River about 60 miles north of Harrisburg. Sault Ste. Marie, the oldest city in Michigan, boasts Lake Superior State University, while Canon City houses Pueblo Community College's Fremont Campus. Tourism plays an important part in the economy of all four towns as well.

Share this on

Related Content

• Topics
• Author
• Most Popular Pages

South, West driving sales growth

Dec 29, 2004

Spending will increase by 27% by 2011

Jan 7, 2007

Also by this author

• U.S. consumers spend $12B on bedroom

• Consumer confidence: Indices point several ways

• Employment picture generally healthy, but not for all groups

• Furniture store sales dip in Aug., up 2.1% for yr.

• Rising prices wane, but it depends on where you live

Also by Kay Anderson

Most Viewed Articles

• Merinos Home Furnishings opening display room, Boyles addition

• Interior Lifestyle China show set for Oct. 10-13

• Six college students win Celia Moh Scholarships for 2012-13

• Ashley Furniture opens first China store in Shanghai

• HOM Furniture adds flooring to six Twin Cities stores

Sponsored Links

• Resource Center
• Browse Categories
• Browse Companies

Featured Company

• Brandwise Inc.

  

  Brandwise serves a model - not just an industry - by integrating, automating, and optimizing the entire sales channel, from wholesale Suppliers to their Reps and the Retailers they service. In short, our software helps Reps and Suppliers sell more and create... more

---

Related Resources

• Shopatron: Bicycles & eCommerce