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Aktrin: Spending growth to slow

Michael J. Knell -- Furniture Today, January 23, 2005

Growth in Canadian consumer spending on furniture and bedding will slow in 2005, reflecting an increasingly sluggish housing market and largely satisfied pent-up demand, according to research company Aktrin Furniture Information Center here.

"The Canadian furniture market (at retail prices) has been plowing ahead without interruption since the third quarter of 2002," Aktrin President Stefan Wille wrote in the January issue of Furniture Economics. "However, parallel to the retreating residential housing construction, growth this year will be somewhat slower at an anticipated rate of 5.2%."

He noted that growth in real disposable income was 3.3% in 2005, and predicted it would slow to 3.1% in 2005.

After several years of stellar performance, Wille believes the Canadian housing market is oversupplied, and anticipates a drop in new units from 227, 000 in 2004 to 200,000 this year.

While overall consumer spending in Canada has consistently grown at around the 3% mark for the past couple of years, expenditures on durable goods have been less buoyant, dropping to a growth rate of 2% in 2003 from the prior year's 8.3%.

"As interest rates started to inch up, and since the accumulated pent-up demand is largely satisfied, spending on durable consumer goods decelerated significantly and fell to 1.7% in 2004," Wille said. "We expect durable consumer goods growth to be in the 3.6% range for this year."

Including sales taxes that average 15% nationally, Aktrin said Canadian consumer spending on furniture should total C$9.4 billion in 2004, up 8.1% from C$8.7 billion in 2003.

"The market value should reach C$9.9 billion in 2005 and exceed the C$10 billion market in 2006," Wille said.

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