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Imports vs. domestic wood shipments: Place your bets!

Jerry Epperson -- Furniture Today, June 12, 2006

If you ever wanted to win a bet at Triangle Billiards in High Point, have we got the ticket! Just ask any savvy furniture executive: When was the last time the domestic wood furniture industry grew faster than wood furniture imports?

Most would guess that would have been in the early 1990s or maybe even the 1980s. Place your bets now; we'll wait a moment.

In order to win big bucks, let's keep the answer just between us: It was the fourth quarter of 2005. It's true! In the December quarter of last year, domestic wood household furniture shipments grew 5.7% and wood household furniture imports grew 4.8%. Impossible? Think again!

Yes, wood imports in that quarter from China grew 17.4%, and from Vietnam 35.1%. But wood imports from Canada, Italy, Thailand and Brazil declined 10.3%, 16.3%, 24.5% and 7.6%, respectively, so the total increase was only 4.8%. Surprised? I was.

The numbers in upholstery are interesting too. For all of 2005, upholstered furniture imports from Italy and Canada dropped 28.9% and 10.9%, respectively, while China, the No. 1 source for upholstered furniture in 2004, grew a whopping 42.5%.

For the year, total upholstery imports grew 12.2%, while domestic shipments of upholstery dropped slightly — less than 1%.

You should not be surprised when you realize the vast majority of the upholstery brought in from China and Italy was leather. In 2004, we estimate 80% of all imported upholstery was leather or leather-match.

Using our method of measuring, imports were 50.7% of all wood furniture sold in the United States in 2005, and accounted for 19.5% of all upholstery sold here. Speaking of upholstery, we imported $357 million in cut-and-sewn fabric covers in 2005 vs. $49.7 million in 2002.

Just to complete the loop, for all of 2005, domestic wood shipments grew 3.7% and imports were up 10.6%, a more typical result in recent years. Also for all of 2005, 45.3% of all imported wood furniture and 49.3% of all upholstery imports came from China.

In 2005, bedding had a very respectable domestic shipment increase of 11.6%, helped by consumers buying larger bedding sets, and more luxurious sets as well. Imports grew a whopping 34% but represented only 5.8% of the bedding sold at retail last year.

By the way, retail sales of furniture and bedding grew 3.9% in 2005, exactly half of 2004's 7.8% growth. Most in our industry would think 3.9% is pretty high, given the challenges we faced last year.

What will 2006 bring? I know but I can't tell you. And I want half the big bucks you won on that imports bet!

Id: 3925

Author Information
W.W. "Jerry" Epperson is a managing director of Mann, Armistead & Epperson, 119 Shockoe Slip, Richmond, Va., an investment banking and research company that specializes in the furnishings sector. The company is affiliated with Ferris, Baker Watts, a full-service brokerage headquartered in Washington.
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