2005: Year of ups, downs not as strong as some say
David Perry, Executive Editor -- Furniture Today, July 2, 2006
Now that this year is more than half over, let's take a look at last year. Our source will be the authoritative Top 15 U.S. Bedding Producers report, published in our June 19 issue. It provides some interesting insights on the dynamic U.S. bedding marketplace.
Our report, which presents the industry's most accurate and comprehensive look at top bedding producers, documents a decidedly mixed year. Two of the five largest producers (Simmons and Spring Air) had sales declines, one (Serta) was up modestly, and two (Sealy and Tempur-Pedic) were up in double digits.
That made for a topsy-turvy 2005, since those leading producers accounted for more than half of all bedding shipments. It was almost a feast-or-famine scenario at the top of the industry.
The next 10 producers had their ups and not-so-ups. Five posted double-digit gains, one was flat and four had single-digit increases.
The growth rate for the Top 15 as a group was 8.3%, but that must be considered in the context of a year of big swings in performance. Once again, Tempur-Pedic and Select Comfort, the two specialty sleep tigers, set a sizzling sales pace that helped boost the industry's overall growth rate. Together, the two companies were up 27.4% last year.
That's impressive, but it's a lower growth rate than the 51.4% those two registered in 2004. So there's some slowdown in their growth, but it remains at a high level.
The 8.3% growth rate for all the Top 15 does not square well with the International Sleep Products Assn.'s figure for total industry growth last year, 10.6%. Frankly, that ISPA number appears to be too high.
In 2004, ISPA said the industry grew 12.1%, and we reported a 12.6% growth rate for the Top 15 producers that year. That's pretty close. But the situation is far different for 2005, with ISPA reporting a much stronger year than our numbers suggest.
Our assumption is that the major bedding producers are outperforming the smaller producers. Last year, the Top 15 accounted for 79% of the industry's sales, according to our ranking and ISPA's figure for the total size of the industry. That leaves 21% of the industry unspoken for in our ranking. We think that segment grew at a lower rate than the big guys. The growth rate recorded by producers in the No. 11 to 15 slots last year — 4.4% — probably is indicative of how that final 21% of the industry fared in 2005. If we use that figure, we get an overall industry growth rate last year of 7.4%.
That, of course, is much lower than ISPA's 10.6%. But, in our humble opinion, it seems to be a better representation of how the industry fared.
Contact David Perry at dperry@reedbusiness.com
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2005: Year of ups, downs not as strong as some say
Jun 30, 2006
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