ISPA predicts 7% rise in mattress sales in 2010
By David Perry -- Furniture Today, November 2, 2009
ALEXANDRIA, Va. — The mattress industry will break out of its lengthy sales slump next year, posting a 7% increase in the dollar value of bedding shipments. Bedding unit sales will rise 3.5%.
So says the latest bedding forecast from the International Sleep Products Assn., which sees the industry as bottoming out and getting ready for a growth spurt.
The ISPA forecast, prepared by ISPA's Forecast Panel of producers and suppliers, sees even stronger days ahead in 2011, when the dollar value of bedding shipments is expected to jump by 10% while unit sales rise 6%.
The forecast also provides an updated look at 2009, which the ISPA panel now projects to finish with a 13.5% decline in the dollar value of shipments and a 10.5% decline in bedding units. That would make this year one of the worst in the modern history of the bedding industry.
“This has been the worst industry recession in memory,” the forecast said, “but it appears that we are at the bottom looking up.”
One forecast committee member, industry analyst Jerry Epperson of Mann, Armistead & Epperson, said next year could be even stronger than the panel is forecasting.
“The committee has chosen a conservative 7% growth in dollar mattress sales in 2010, helped by expected 3.5% in price increases,” Epperson wrote in his “Another Perspective” section of the ISPA forecast report. “While growth in mattress sales sounds heavenly, especially after unit sales declines in 2007, 2008 and 2009, the 7% would be low by historic standards after past recessions. Those recessions were also shorter and shallower, so there is the potential for a double-digit gain in 2010, in our opinion.”
The dollar rebound next year could be as high as 12% to 15% if there are wholesale price increases, an upgrade in mix, and more unit sales, Epperson wrote.
If the ISPA forecast is accurate, bedding unit sales will end their four-year skid in 2010 and the dollar value of bedding shipments will end a two-year decline.
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