ISPA statistics program needs thorough review
David Perry, Executive editor -- Furniture Today, November 16, 2009
The International Sleep Products Assn., now taking stock of where it stands as it looks for new leadership, has a golden opportunity to address an ongoing industry concern: The validity of its statistics program.
As regular readers of this column are well aware, I've challenged ISPA's statistics a number of times over the years. More significantly, I've raised issues that are shared by longtime bedding observers.
Candidly, my concerns have not been well received by ISPA. I found the former leadership to be highly defensive about the statistics program. I was told that the statistics program has been carefully scrutinized by respected authorities and was right on target.
Now, as ISPA reassesses its strategies and directions, I urge the association to conduct a thorough review of its statistics program. Specifically, ISPA should conduct a long-term review of its forecasting program, which has not proven to generate accurate forecasts in recent years, according to an analysis of that program shared with me by one industry veteran. (To cite just one example, in March 2008 ISPA predicted a 1% sales gain for the year. The association missed that call by a country mile — dollars were down in 2008 by 9.1%.)
ISPA should also review the process by which it estimates industry performance by estimating the sales of companies who don't participate in ISPA surveys. Sometimes, I think, ISPA gives those companies too much credit in its annual survey. And the estimates assigned to that segment, which can represent about 25% of the total industry, are critical in determining the total size of the bedding market.
You know that chart that shows a long history of mostly strong growth in the bedding industry? Each of those growth years included key estimates of performance by non-reporting companies. If those estimates were off base, so are the growth numbers.
It also would be nice if ISPA broke out figures for airbed, memory foam and latex bed sales.
When I've raised questions about ISPA stats in recent years, I've been told that Serta's absence from the statistics program has been a major problem. Now Serta is going to share its figures once again with ISPA. That's a positive step, but it won't end the questions about how ISPA develops industry forecasts and statistics.
ISPA needs to open its statistics program to review by a committee of fresh eyes. One industry leader suggested to me that ISPA's statistics committee should resign and that a new committee should be installed in its place in order to insure the program gets a thorough, independent review. I don't know that such a drastic step is needed, but there is no doubt that a major infusion of fresh thinking and analysis is needed. The time for defensiveness is over.
Contact David Perry at dperry@reedbusiness.com
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