Bedding units seen rising 2.5%
By David Perry -- Furniture Today, January 11, 2010
HIGH POINT — Bedding shipments will grow by 2.5% in units this year, while the dollar value of those shipments will post a 2.2% gain.
That's the word from Furniture/Today's 2010 Consensus Bedding Forecast, which represents the collective insight of two dozen bedding producers, including most of the industry's Top 10 manufacturers.
While the forecast foresees only modest unit and dollar increases, the gain would mark an end to bedding's lengthy recession. Units shipments have been down for the last four years, while dollars have been down for the last two years.
But the forecast doesn't see a big wave of pent-up demand sweeping through the industry, a development that some analysts envision this year.
As part of its annual look ahead to business prospects in the new year, Furniture/Today asks the CEOs and presidents of almost 30 bedding producers to share their confidential predictions for unit and dollar growth (or declines). The newspaper then weights those forecasts based on the market share positions of leading producers.
Two dozen producers responded to F/T's questions about business prospects this year.
The Bedding Consensus Forecast for 2010 is more conservative than the current forecast issued by the International Sleep Products Assn. last fall, which calls for a 3.5% increase in bedding units this year and a 7% jump in the dollar value of shipments.
Many of the producers offering predictions to Furniture/Today thought the ISPA figures were too optimistic.
Furniture/Today asks the producers to share their forecasts on a not-for-attribution basis to encourage them to be completely candid with their predictions. A few producers, though, made public comments on their forecasts. And those producers were divided in their views.
On the more positive side of the ledger, Simmons President Steve Fendrich expects the industry's unit sales to increase by about 3.5% this year, while Chris Henning, president of North America sales for Kingsdown, is predicting “modest unit growth” this year.
But, on the more pessimistic side of the ledger, Serta President Bob Sherman thinks the dollar value of shipments will finish no better than flat, and could be off by 5%. And Spring Air International President Rick Robinson believes that units and dollars will be down this year, but the percentage declines will be in the low single digits.
ISPA is forecasting the dollar value of bedding shipments to finish 2009 down 13.5%, with units down 10.5%.
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