Recovery to Pick Up Speed?
Jay McIntosh -- Furniture Today, December 15, 2010
Epperson forecasts 5.5% growth in ‘11
RICHMOND, Va. - U.S. furniture and mattress retail sales grew more slowly than expected this year as the recovery bogged down in the second half, but should perk up with increases of 5.5% in 2011 and 6.5% in 2012, according to industry analyst Jerry Epperson's new forecast.
That would be the industry's strongest growth since a 7.1% gain in 2004.
Epperson, of Richmond-based Mann, Armistead & Epperson, also projects that in 2012 U.S. consumer spending on furniture and bedding - the broadest measure of the industry's total retail sales - will finally get back to the peak level it reached in 2007.
He said his updated forecast, based on the new University of Michigan economic forecast issued in November, "is offered with a conservative, somewhat hopeful approach. Only a year ago, the furniture industry was experiencing double-digit declines, with a couple of months of unbelievable 20% or more collapse."
The consumer spending number slid 6% in 2008 and another 8% in 2009 before reversing course this year with a modest gain projected at 3.1%, Epperson said.
This year's performance was a bit weaker than the 4.2% he had projected in his previous forecast in June because of a softer second half, he added.
He noted that the U.S., and the industry's recovery from the most recent economic slump is taking longer than past rebounds.
"Home furnishings sales are reliant upon consumer credit availability, housing turnover and consumer confidence, which includes the consumers' perceived financial well-being and employment security. All of these continue to be at risk today," he said.
The forecast now projects U.S. consumer spending on furniture and bedding at $83.5 billion in 2010, up from $81 billion last year. The number is projected to rise to $88.1 billion in 2011, $93.8 billion in 2012, $98.1 billion in 2013 (a 4.5% gain) and $102.1 billion in 2014 (up 4.1%).
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