Documenting core trends reveals host of others
Jerry Epperson -- Furniture Today, February 24, 2011
Jerry Epperson An insider’s view
As folks who read this column or my newsletter know, I read a lot of publications seeking to find bits of information that we believe will impact the home furnishings industry.
While most of the publications are recognizable, some of the specialized studies like the Journal of Applied Communication Research, are not. The materials from the various regional Federal Reserve Boards, the housing associations (home builders and realtors), several detailed economic forecasts and the Department of Commerce are all fairly dry but straightforward. I am a member of The World Future Society, and its materials can make you either think or drink heavily as you review predictions for our nation, all of mankind and for our planet.
As we enter this new decade, I am working on a study that will define our industry, discuss the core trends that are impacting us and share what demographics and social science are telling us about our prospects. Of course, this will assume the world will not end in 2012 as some expect. If you believe that, you should borrow every dollar you can get and enjoy it today!
We all know about the large trends, but sometimes it helps to see them documented.
► Imports: When we first published our standardized import statistics in 1993, 24.8% of wood furniture, 5.7% of upholstered furniture and 0.9% of mattresses were imported. As of the third quarter of 2010 (the most recent available), those same sectors imported 73.3%, 41.0% and 5.9%, respectively. Take comfort that imports cannot go higher than 100%.
► Sales volume: Over the last decade, everyone in our industry worked hard, and we saw a few ups and more downs, but the net result was disappointing to an extreme. Price deflation in wood and leather and a stress-filled economy left us with annual growth rates for the entire 10 years of: Retail sales, 2.4%; wood furniture, -2.9%; upholstered furniture, -0.8%; metal furniture, 1.5%; and mattresses, 1.8%, all in dollars, of course.
► Channels of distribution: The total furniture pie did not grow much over the past decade, but some slices got larger. For most in the furniture industry, "real" furniture retailers are furniture and mattress stores. All those other retailers that sell some furniture along with other stuff are just interlopers, right? Carpetbaggers, if you will, if y'all are from Dixie. But if you add up all the discount department stores, office supply stores, department stores, wholesale clubs, rental/rental purchase, pre-furnished housing, non-store retailers like the Internet and catalogs and a catch-all of "others," of which there are too many to name, these retailers did more than 40% of furniture and mattress sales in 2009, the latest year we can analyze.
See some trends?
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