The news is not good but, to cite that oft-heard saying, "It is what it is." And what it is is a forecast for a year of shrinking unit volume and only modest gains in the dollar volume of bedding shipments.

That's a summary of Furniture|Today's 2007 Bedding Consensus Forecast, which is hot off the press. You'll find the details of our forecast in the Dec. 18 print issue. An electronic copy can be purchased by clicking here.

In this space, where I can add my opinions, I will just say the industry support for our annual bedding outlook is overwhelming. We have gotten projections, predictions or insights from more than two dozen bedding producers, including almost every member of the Top 10, and from plenty of second-tier producers as well.

Collectively, those insights give us an authoritative base from which to size up the new year. Of course, we can't guarantee that units will post a 0.1% decline in 2007 or that dollars will be up by only 5.4%, as our forecast predicts. But we can say, definitively, that that's what the industry thinks will happen as this year draws to a close.

And we can also say, again definitively, that the industry does not share the optimistic 2007 forecast issued in September by the International Sleep Products Assn., which calls for a 1.5% gain in units and an 8.5% gain in dollars next year.

The year that ends in two weeks will be judged as a lackluster one, we think. A few companies have had spectacular growth. Many others have struggled. Retail has been very soft. Many producers see that tough climate carrying over into the new year.

We've amassed a folder full of observations on 2007. In this issue's bedding forecast feature, you'll read, in their words, the overall assessments of 26 bedding leaders. More outlook stories will follow in January. Our cornucopia of insights from bedding executives is overflowing.

This also is a good time to look back to see how well our leaders sized up the challenges of 2006. Sealy's Dave McIlquham correctly predicted "modest" unit growth in 2006, and Serta's Bob Sherman correctly predicted "a so-so year" for the industry. Jim Nation of Spring Air was right on when he forecast "a year of adjustments and turmoil." David Orders of Park Place was correct to predict "a tough year for the bedding industry."

Who missed the mark? Kerry Tramel of Lady Americana was overly enthusiastic with his assertion that "the outlook for bedding in 2006 looks very encouraging." Carlene Peterson, formerly of Restonic, incorrectly predicted it would be "business as usual" this year.

We haven't heard too much optimism as producers assess the industry's prospects in 2007. A year of challenges begins soon. What will you be doing to get more than your share of a shrinking pie?