Recent import figures compiled by Furniture/Today show some amazing growth by Vietnam. In 2007, the country shipped $1.17 billion worth of furniture to the United States, up 36% from the previous year to place it solidly in the number three spot on the list of top countries shipping furniture to America.  (See our report: Effects of Globalization on the U.S. Furniture Industry)

The increase should come as no surprise. In the past several years, Vietnam has emerged as an alternate source to China, largely thanks to its lack of antidumping duties on wood bedroom furniture. Wood bedroom continued to be a growth area for Vietnam in 2006, but so did other wood categories including dining tables and chairs and accent and occasional furniture.

Vietnamese officials are obviously pleased with this trend. At a late February press conference reported by online resource VietnamNet Bridge, the Vietnamese trade counselor in the U.S. said the 36% growth rate caused furniture to surpass footwear as the number two export product from Vietnam. He predicted it will grow even further this year, perhaps as high as $1.6 billion.

But trade counselor Ngo Van Thoan also sounded a cautionary note. Such rapid growth in shipments, he said, could make the country a target for future U.S. antidumping investigations similar to those experienced by Vietnam’s shrimp industry and China’s furniture industry. Actually, it’s a theme that Vietnamese furniture producers have had on their minds since Taiwanese factories began setting up operations there several years ago.

The Saigon Times reported a week later that the Ho Chi Minh City Handicraft and Wood Assn. said a week later that such trade barriers are unlikely. The statement was an obvious effort to allay these concerns before the start of a furniture show that week in Ho Chi Minh City. As an industry association, it’s natural for a group like HAWA to downplay such threats. It argued that the industry is not shipping nearly enough to warrant such an action by the U.S. government. To that point, even at the number three spot, Vietnam trails China’s overall furniture shipments to the U.S. by some $12.1 billion.

U.S. industry officials also claim to have heard such rumors of an antidumping investigation related to Vietnam. But after the divisiveness caused by the last antidumping petition regarding China, few believe the industry would go down that path again. Asked about the subject, some of the U.S. companies that petitioned the government on China also deny they are pursuing any action on Vietnam. Even if they did, the government would have to look into whether low-priced goods from Vietnam are really injuring the remaining U.S. producers? Are there enough left here to warrant such another antidumping campaign?

These and other questions may never have to be answered. But if the Vietnamese keep talking about antidumping, they could find themselves forcing the issue upon themselves. For now, all the talk — rather than the actual import numbers — reminds folks that Vietnam’s furniture exports might demand a close look.