Warning: Some execs foresee even weaker year for bedding

So here we are in a new year. The glow of the holidays is a pleasant memory. We are all back at work, plowing through e-mail, launching new projects and getting ready for the big bedding market that will unfold in Las Vegas next month.We also are trying to figure out what is going to happen this year. Frankly, prospects for the mattress industry are bleak. Furniture/Today’s Consensus Bedding Forecast, which we unveiled late last month, calls for a 9.3% decline in bedding units and an 8.5% decline in the dollar value of shipments this year. We have never forecast declines of that magnitude.

And, disturbingly, some leading producers believe the year will be even worse than we are forecasting.

Simmons President Steve Fendrich, for example, told us he believes the industry will be down by about 12% in units and about 10% in dollars. Most bedding people have accepted the reality that the industry faces “a very challenging” year, he said.

In preparing our consensus forecast we asked dozens of bedding producers to assess their business prospects. We keep those individual assessments confidential, unless, like Fendrich, they wish to make them public. Those private predictions reveal a grim minority report. A number of leaders believe that dollars could decline by 15% this year, with units declining anywhere from 10% to 15%.

Our consensus forecast is weighted to reflect the market share positions enjoyed by the largest producers, and that weighting erases some of that more pessimistic thinking. But we must issue this warning: Some very senior people in the industry see double-digit unit and dollar declines in 2009. Those views should be given careful consideration.

At the same time, we can hope for better days this year. Despite their predictions of a decline for the industry, each producer we surveyed will be doing everything possible to beat those numbers. And even in a down year, there will be companies that will outperform their competitors and thus will gain market share. It will be interesting to see who will be the winners of 2009.

We approach the new year with the thought that, however grim the forecasts may be, there are opportunities to be seized and good performances to be praised. We made that point in our final column of the old year, and we heard from a number of you who said you appreciated our upbeat message.

So here’s the game plan for 2009: The bedding forecasts are negative, and the reality may be even worse than we are forecasting. But companies can still set themselves apart with great marketing and great execution. Whatever happens, it will be our privilege to share the highlights of the battle for market share with you readers each week.

I’m pretty sure it will be a year packed with exciting mattress news, of one sort or another.