Bedding forecast sees big rebound in 2010
They say the media doesn’t report good news, but I come before you today with three nice-sounding numbers: 7, 12 and 15.
Those are three estimates of how much growth the mattress category will record next year. Yes, you heard us correctly. We said “growth.” That’s not a word that has been heard in Mattressville in recent years.
I found those nice-sounding numbers in the latest forecast issued by the International Sleep Products Assn. That group’s forecast panel sees the dollar value of mattress shipments growing by 7% next year, with units expected to increase by 3.5%.
By way of contrast, ISPA is now projecting the dollar value of shipments to decline by 13.5% this year, with units expected to plunge by 10.5%. So you can see that those projected increases next year would mark dramatic improvements.
But wait. Things might be even better than ISPA is forecasting. That’s the view of Jerry Epperson, a member of ISPA’s forecast panel who shares his own thoughts on the industry outlook in the ISPA forecast reports. And Jerry says the dollar gains next year could, if things go well, be in the 12% to 15% range. Wow!
I know that everyone is looking for positives as the High Point Market gets ready for its fall run. So I leave you with three positives: Plus 7, plus 12 and plus 15. Take your pick. Or do you have a different number in mind?
RandyT commented:
I could definitely see an increase for next year. I have heard consistent reports that econmists believe we are out of a recession. Even though unemployment is still up, news of the recession ending could be just what the doctor ordered for consumers who have areasonable enough income to get rid of there old sagging mattress set and purchase a new set of bedding.
Bedding Retailer commented:
It is anybody's guess, but I believe the 7% is accurate. Dollars per piece are on the rise in our retail chain. AUSP is on the rise, add on sales are on the rise. The reality is mattress are a postponable purchase, but not indefinitely delayable. Its been three years of delay. Consumers are seeking value, all the research shows that. Offer value, they will buy that is being proven at retail everyday. I look forward to the evidence.
Florida Panhandle commented:
Won't happen.
Warren Littrell commented:
Dave, FROM YOUR LIPS TO GOD'S EAR. I CERTAINLY HOPE THE FORECAST IS TRUE. SOMEHOW I CAN'T HELP BUT HAVE A LITTLE DOUBT. WE WILL SEE!
Big M commented:
Bedding will be -5% to Flat for the year.
Thats the best that will happen.
JW commented:
A plus +7% is conservative when you look at the declines we have had over the last few years. This is still way off from the business we had in 2006 and 2007. A plus +7% a good news!
Fruit Juice commented:
Absolute nonsense! Unemployment continues to rise. Those fortunate enough to remain employed are working shorter hours and thus bringing home less. Who in their right mind is going to spend significant $ on a good mattress? If your refrigerator or stove is broken you have no choice but to replace it. Unfortunately, you can always put off the mattress purchase.
Yuan Can Nguyen commented:
That was cherry Kool Aid with a healthy dose of Vodka. To put this in prospective, "Never put a negative in front of the customer". Get their expectations high and when reality sets in, try to soften the fall. Not only are units down but the sales dollars per unit are taking a hit. Heck, I'm preaching to the choir. You all know the reality. Some just need to accept it and deal with it.
former insider commented:
I hope what they predict comes true, but I think they must have served up some mighty strong kool aid the that forcast committee meeting. The economic outlook is very still very weak and maybe, just maybe we will may see a tiny bit of growth in the second half of 2010. As long as the unemployment numbers remain dismal and retailers feel forced to continue to lower prices to survive I can't see how revenue is going to increase. My guess between 1% and 3% growth with more manufacturer consolidation and continued reduction of the number of retail outlets.
