THE DANGER OF UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS

We could not get through any day without making a series of underlying assumptions. We assume the person driving the car in the other lane will not swerve into us; we assume that the food we eat is not poisoned; we assume our kids will be safe at school; we assume that we will not be fired unfairly and so on. These assumptions allow us to focus on less certain realities that need our intervention. However, too many times in business the underlying assumption, while making our job easier and us more comfortable, may not be appropriate in today’s dynamic world.Assumptions dumb-down life. No doubt, to get through life there needs to be a certain amount of dumbing-down. It is so complex. Nevertheless this behavior can at times be catastrophic. Just because housing prices have never gone down does not mean they won’t if events change. Just because the stock market has always gone up in any ten year period doesn’t mean it always will. Just because a given company has been the market share leader doesn’t mean that if they continue doing things the same way that they will always be the market share leader-see GM, Dell, or many of the dominant furniture companies that have disappeared over the years. Events change facts and should bring into question our underlying assumptions.

The world grows more complex daily. The information firehose drowns us with conflicting data that can be hard to navigate. A certain amount of assumptions are necessary for us to move forward quickly. In fact, a key competitive advantage is the ability to digest information quickly and make decisions expeditiously. The danger is that in the interest of speed and comfort we may not adequately question our underlying assumptions. Someone in the room needs to stand up and ask the uncomfortable question about whether the foundational assumption still applies. The bigger the decision the more important this behavior becomes. A culture that encourages this sort of honesty is one that will get it right more often than not. A culture that muzzles disparate or critical views is not long for today’s world. No one person can do it alone. No one viewpoint is always right. Today’s world punishes this decision-making model.

Paradigm shifts occur with increasing frequency. IBM dominated technology for decades. Microsoft enjoyed that distinction for much less time. Paradigm shifts occur because someone, somewhere questions the underlying assumption. Leaders that turn a critical eye upon themselves, before others do, enjoy much more control over their destiny. Leaders who do not assume that their present competition will be their future competition position themselves better for a changing competitive landscape. Great leaders are not afraid to question underlying assumptions.

Underlying assumptions allow us to get through the day but incorrect ones also can make for very long ones.