Jerod Lazan of Mortise & Tenon - Looking for signs of change!

This post as well as a few previous posts have addressed some of the fundamental problems of economic indicators. We all want to find reasons that things are getting better, the signs of a economic rebound. The problem with using these broad based indicators is that they rarely apply to all places in our country. This recession as well all past downturns effected each region of this country differently. I’m sure if you live in Michigan there’s a completely different environment than in San Francisco.What gets me about this broad try at analyzing positive changes in our industry is the overall insensitivity to this kind of forecasting. Our store in Los Angeles and has nothing to do with what’s going on in Dallas. If blogs are going to explore economic changes and then spend the time to research every region and apply applicable information for each region. This way the information might actually be useful.

Why is it that if for the last 15 years growth in our economy was based on individuals and companies assuming excessive amounts of debt to support their consumption that somehow the situation has reversed itself. Everyone I talk to has developed a strange need to save, I repeat save rather then consume which would make it difficult for there to be a large surge of consumption right around the corner.

Lets look at what it might take for there to be resurgence in real growth in our economy. Lets start with all that real wage growth that’s being offered to employees that have increased work loads not less( I’m sure all business owner’s out there are excited about increasing your hard working employees salaries). How about the beginnings of all our homes values increasing, I’m waiting. I certainly know that corporate America thinks hiring rather then laying off personnel is the best way to help the bottom line.

Since health care is under control the 78 million baby boomers will rest easy that their retirement isn’t in jeopardy in case of a medical emergency( did you know that a majority of personal bankruptcies is due to medical bills), and this effects those in the middle more then other groups. What is the next new technology that will be the engine of growth to support the next wave of 80 million under 30 that are entering the job market.
The present use of statistics and official indicators seems to have a few flaws. Somehow economists and those that offer forecasts for a living have the ability to tell us trends and not lose there jobs if they are wrong, I would love to have that kind of job security. A quote I was told early on in econ; Statistics lie and liars use statistics.
Sorry for the strong response to some of the blogs, it’s just that everyone is looking in the wrong places to find the right answers. We will see growth soon only because the statistics that will be applied will be based on the last quarters numbers. When your at the bottom it’s easy to extract any numbers that are needed to make a point.

To many times it seems like little effort is put into posting relevant information. As a retailer and manufacture I don’t appreciate a sound bite approach to dealing with the current state of things. Spend real time researching the data posted and give relevant information so those of us that have rent, payroll and purchase from others have good tools to help us survive.

Thanks Jerod from Mortise & Tenon’

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